A poll on the New York 24th District came out last week. It was done my Majority Watch, as a project of RT Strategies and Constitutent Dynamics. Of likely voters, Arcuri to Meier was 52% to 43%. Ray Meier has the support 73% of Republicans, versus the 84% of Democrats that support Michael Arcuri.

I have a hard time believing that Arcuri has a nine point lead in a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by forty thousand voters. Two years ago Boehlart defeated his Democrat opponent 57% - 34%. Walrath, the candidate running for the conservative party got 9% of the vote.

Constituent Dynamics used automated polling, but I’m not sure if that is any more or less accurate than traditional polling.