Real Clear Politics is a daily must check for anyone following the political scene here in America. Recently they’ve updated the House seats that are in play.

It looks bad for Republicans. Real bad. The list now includes 40 seats. They’re done in order of vulnerability, but the first thirty are all Republican. The Reier-Arcuri race is #12.

The Mark Foley scandal (which we haven’t discussed on this blog even though it has been discussed pretty much everywhere else) has hit the Republican just when they could do without bad news.

However, the Democrats have also done two things to make this year more competitive.

The Democrats have recruited many more stronger challengers than the Republicans have this year. Although in a normal year these guys might have not much of a chance, they’re there ready to ride the wave. When the Republicans take a hit, the Democrats have positioned their candidates to immediately take advantage.

The Democrats so far into the election have also done a better job hiding their agenda than in past elections. Almost all the Democrats in close races voted for the Military Commission Act. Here in our own race, Michael Arcuri told veterans he didn’t support a date specific pullout of Iraq, although later he admitted he did.

This hiding of their agenda need not be substantial. The superficial impression, as long as it doesn’t look superficial, is even more important. In a Democrat ad somewhere in the South I saw recently the candidate put in a pretty convincing “God willing”. A few days ago there was a national Democrat spokesman on Fox news who with a smile and a slight Southern accent asked people to trust Democrat party to clean up Washington.

Democrats have almost always had to act more conservative then they really are, but this year their act is a little more sophisticated. We even see in some cases, such as Arcuri’s, this has actually back-fired. Democrats are either not voting or not campaigning because they feel betrayed.

Most voters are not stupid, and they are just now starting to turn into the election. Although in some states voting has started, in most states there are still four weeks till the election. Will the tide turn before then? We’ll have to wait and see.