Jay Cost from over at the Horse Race Blog has a intriguing two part series on the House elections this fall. The first part is here and the second part here. He’s now a columnist for Real Clear Politics in between working on his dissertation for a doctorate in political science at the University of Chicago. What is his prediction for this November?

Thus, we should consider an 11-seat swing in November as the maximum Democratic gain. Factoring in the incumbency pushes my estimate to less than 10. Factoring in the tight alignment of the electorate pushes my estimate to a Democratic gain of about 8 seats. Assuming that (a) Bush’s popularity does not drop off, (b) the economy does not stagnate and (c) Republicans do not have to defend more net open seats, I predict that the 110th Congress will have 224 Republicans and 211 Democrats.

Maybe I’m too optimistic. I’m still hoping we can gain some seats, like we did in 2002 and 2004.